1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	35220	Help Arrives!	Current	70	7.89	5.57	4.00
			Estimated	100	7.97	5.63	2.77

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
On 18 July 1936, various generals in the Spanish army rose up against the government of the Second Republic. The failure of the coup as it had been originally planned gave way to a civil conflict between the defenders of the democratic government and the backers of the military coup. Machado’s two Spains fought each other for nearly three years in a battle which reflected the political and social tensions affecting the world at that time. The opposing armies were very different: on one hand, the Republican army possessed a limited number of professional soldiers and many popular militias belonging to political parties and labor unions. To this were added the International Brigades, formed from foreign volunteers of diverse origin; a fighting force which was highly motivated, but poorly coordinated and typically poorly organized. On the other hand, the Franco´s army had most of the professional military, along with Carlist and fascist militias, many native Moroccan troops, and the volunteers of the Condor Legion and the Corpo Trupe Voluntarie, sent by Hitler and Mussolini, respectively. From a military point of view, the Spanish Civil War presaged the global conflict which would soon erupt. In the mid-1930s, military high commands from all over the globe theorized on the possibilities of motorized armies and “lightning war”. Both Nazis and Soviets rehearsed armored tactics in Spain, and tested various types of weapons. In addition, the importance that air superiority would have on all later conflicts was made clear. All of these elements make the Spanish Civil War a fascinating conflict from an historical point of view and with regard to military strategy. Help Arrives! (HA) is a stand-alone game in the War Storms series 100% compatible with A las Barricadas! including the international help received by the Nationalist and Republican as well as many other units that fought on both sides during the SCW: The International Brigades, the Italian Corpo Troppe Volontarie (C.T.V.) HA while utilizing "PTH" base rules, incorporates new and adapted rules and additions for this new tittle. The WSS promises many hours of fierce fighting between the infantry, tanks, artillery and aircraft belonging to the armies enveloped in this conflict. Just a few of the additions include: Battalion officers Communist Commissars Recon rules Flamethrower tanks International Brigades Corpo Troppe Volontarie (C.T.V.) Condor Legion One 8'5 x 11" chart with many overlays HA has a moderate complexity with good solitaire suitability. The system emphasizes the role of officers. Officers can activate units, coordinate with other officers and their units, call for artillery support, air support, influence moral checks, coordinate assaults, and much more. Rules for special actions. Based on the principle of simultaneous execution, or simply "WE GO", a hybrid system of turns and "real time". The players must activate unit leaders to perform many actions (fire, assault, move, coordinate, etc). A turn ends when both players have completed all their activations. The scale is platoon level with units Representing groups of between 30 and 40 soldiers, weapons units represents groups of 3-4 weapons and their accompanying crews (20-25 soldiers), and the AFvs-Transports representing groups of 3 to 5 vehicles and their corresponding crews. Scenarios are divided into turns representing about 12-15 minutes of action. Turns are divided into the following phases: Command Phase, Initiative Phase, Activation Phase and Marker Removal Phase The game uses isomorphic mapboards, each of which are aligned to any edge of equal length on any other mopboard. This allows for an almost unlimited number of combinations to create any terrain situation, including player designed scenarios. Each map hex represents a distance of approximately 150 to 200 metres. Components: 4 Isomorphic Maps 8 Overlays 5 sheets of Counters (3 of 5/8” and 2 of 3/4”) 1 Standard Rulebook 1 Exclusive Rulebook 7 Scenario Cards featuring 13 scenarios 3 Charts and Table Cards 2 Battalion Charts Cards 2 six-side dice

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/35220

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Help Arrives!? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Help Arrives!. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Help Arrives!. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	35220	Help Arrives!	1.00	5.57	7.89	2.77	70
1	2015	184440	Sticks and Stones: Platoon-level Combat in World War IV	0.99	5.53	7.40	2.17	31
2	1982	16272	Little Round Top	0.98	5.52	6.69	2.56	36
3	2019	250291	Hold the Line: The American Civil War	0.96	5.54	7.51	2.00	44
4	1975	6832	The Siege of Minas Tirith	0.94	5.51	6.56	3.33	35
5	2016	191032	Invasion 1066: Stamford Bridge	0.93	5.54	7.49	2.20	37
6	2015	179020	La bataille de Jemmapes	0.92	5.52	6.91	2.33	32
7	1992	10557	The Black Prince	0.92	5.53	6.32	2.57	57
8	2006	26486	Maida and Castel Nuovo, 1806	0.91	5.54	7.69	2.50	31
9	2004	9823	Advanced Squad Leader: Starter Kit #1	0.91	6.79	7.84	3.76	2,500
10	2017	238919	The Battle of Wakefield: Yorkshire, England 30 December 1460	0.90	5.59	7.34	2.90	93
11	2005	16804	Eastern Front: A Panzer Grenadier Game	0.90	5.70	7.04	2.81	295
12	2015	99573	Lock 'n Load Tactical: Heroes of the Pacific	0.90	5.65	8.21	3.78	118
13	2014	144574	Last Chance for Victory: The Battle of Gettysburg	0.90	5.73	8.79	4.08	152
14	1975	15274	La Bataille de la Moscowa	0.89	5.63	7.82	3.88	125
15	2009	38824	Marlborough's Battles: Ramillies and Malplaquet	0.89	5.51	6.19	2.89	33
16	1978	12899	La Bataille de Preussisch-Eylau	0.89	5.65	7.74	3.84	145
17	1987	5928	Harpoon (Third Edition)	0.89	5.63	6.43	4.00	313
18	2002	3992	Advanced Tobruk	0.88	5.67	7.34	4.18	226
19	1986	2812	Platoon	0.87	5.53	5.88	2.08	238
20	1985	12429	Struggle for Stalingrad	0.86	5.50	6.13	2.29	30
21	2019	187808	Front Toward Enemy	0.86	5.57	7.74	2.75	77
22	2015	172414	Ball's Bluff	0.86	5.54	7.27	2.33	41
23	2019	209877	World At War 85: Storming the Gap	0.86	5.81	8.82	3.21	245
24	1991	4234	Hougoumont: Rock of Waterloo	0.85	5.56	6.59	2.60	109
25	2000	8415	En Pointe Toujours II: Normandie 1944	0.85	5.54	7.44	2.80	33

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Help Arrives! while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	35220	Help Arrives!	5.57	1.00	5.57	7.89	2.77	70
1	2004	9823	Advanced Squad Leader: Starter Kit #1	6.16	0.91	6.79	7.84	3.76	2,500
2	2015	184440	Sticks and Stones: Platoon-level Combat in World War IV	5.47	0.99	5.53	7.40	2.17	31
3	1982	16272	Little Round Top	5.39	0.98	5.52	6.69	2.56	36
4	2019	250291	Hold the Line: The American Civil War	5.29	0.96	5.54	7.51	2.00	44
5	1975	6832	The Siege of Minas Tirith	5.16	0.94	5.51	6.56	3.33	35
6	2014	144574	Last Chance for Victory: The Battle of Gettysburg	5.14	0.90	5.73	8.79	4.08	152
7	2016	191032	Invasion 1066: Stamford Bridge	5.13	0.93	5.54	7.49	2.20	37
8	2005	16804	Eastern Front: A Panzer Grenadier Game	5.12	0.90	5.70	7.04	2.81	295
9	2015	179020	La bataille de Jemmapes	5.09	0.92	5.52	6.91	2.33	32
10	1992	10557	The Black Prince	5.08	0.92	5.53	6.32	2.57	57
11	1974	237	Wooden Ships & Iron Men	5.08	0.81	6.29	7.06	3.11	2,015
12	2015	99573	Lock 'n Load Tactical: Heroes of the Pacific	5.07	0.90	5.65	8.21	3.78	118
13	2017	238919	The Battle of Wakefield: Yorkshire, England 30 December 1460	5.05	0.90	5.59	7.34	2.90	93
14	2006	26486	Maida and Castel Nuovo, 1806	5.03	0.91	5.54	7.69	2.50	31
15	1975	15274	La Bataille de la Moscowa	5.03	0.89	5.63	7.82	3.88	125
16	1978	12899	La Bataille de Preussisch-Eylau	5.02	0.89	5.65	7.74	3.84	145
17	2002	3992	Advanced Tobruk	5.01	0.88	5.67	7.34	4.18	226
18	1987	5928	Harpoon (Third Edition)	4.99	0.89	5.63	6.43	4.00	313
19	2019	209877	World At War 85: Storming the Gap	4.99	0.86	5.81	8.82	3.21	245
20	2011	39217	Fighting Formations: Grossdeutschland Motorized Infantry Division	4.98	0.80	6.21	7.63	3.29	947
21	2013	129122	Band of Brothers: Ghost Panzer	4.92	0.83	5.94	8.00	2.70	391
22	2009	38824	Marlborough's Battles: Ramillies and Malplaquet	4.92	0.89	5.51	6.19	2.89	33
23	2019	202721	The Last Hundred Yards	4.84	0.83	5.81	8.11	3.54	307
24	2019	209003	Commands & Colors: Medieval	4.82	0.80	5.99	8.28	2.53	418
25	1979	2800	The Ironclads: A Tactical Level Game of Naval Combat in the American Civil War 1861-1865	4.81	0.84	5.71	7.32	3.51	264

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	35220	Help Arrives!	Draco Ideas	Nicolás Eskubi	Nicolás Eskubi	Civil War	History: Spanish Civil War	Dice Rolling
			War Storm Series			Wargame	Players: Two Players Only Wargames	Hexagon Grid
							Series: War Storm	Line of Sight
								Simulation

Individual Game Analysis